Talk:PredictionMarkets
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| Ah; [http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/iowa_and_predec.html Here's an article on what I was talking about.] -- LionKimbro | Ah; [http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/iowa_and_predec.html Here's an article on what I was talking about.] -- LionKimbro | ||
| - | : Lion, thanks for comment. I see [[ | + | : Lion, thanks for comment. I see [[PredictionMarkets]] as a ''possible'' tool. Maybe they need to be named something else, because I am not really thinking about using them as a "prediciton" tool, so much as a way to aggregate insights and knowledge based around a "bet". I think there is a lot of supporting data about how, in the case where knowledge about something is dispersed, that [[PredictionMarkets]] perform well. |
| - | The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, [[ | + | The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, [[PredictionMarkets]]] do not perform well until knowledge about the questions they are asking becomes available. In the case of the FundCamp process, I am seeing [[PredictionMarkets]] as one potential tool to make available to inform the overall, but not required (same with [[Consensus polling]]. However, it is recommended as a way to explore certain dimensions of a business, in the form of questions, etc, eg "Will this market last for longer than one year?", "Will this idea be displaced by the iPhone", etc |
| I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project. | I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project. | ||
Current revision
I was originally excited about prediction markets, but lost my excitement after I started looking at how they performed. I recall a widely touted election prediction that a market allegedly made. But that wasn't really a "pre-diction;" The market was very wrong most of the time. Yet this was touted as a success..?! It was only a couple weeks before the election, when everyone was realizing what was going on, and how things were, that the market reflected the winner. A nice way to get a number on public knowledge, but is it a method for predicting the future? I don't think so.
That said, if you're looking for supporting articles, here's one. -- LionKimbro
Ah; Here's an article on what I was talking about. -- LionKimbro
- Lion, thanks for comment. I see PredictionMarkets as a possible tool. Maybe they need to be named something else, because I am not really thinking about using them as a "prediciton" tool, so much as a way to aggregate insights and knowledge based around a "bet". I think there is a lot of supporting data about how, in the case where knowledge about something is dispersed, that PredictionMarkets perform well.
The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, PredictionMarkets] do not perform well until knowledge about the questions they are asking becomes available. In the case of the FundCamp process, I am seeing PredictionMarkets as one potential tool to make available to inform the overall, but not required (same with Consensus polling. However, it is recommended as a way to explore certain dimensions of a business, in the form of questions, etc, eg "Will this market last for longer than one year?", "Will this idea be displaced by the iPhone", etc
I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project.
